So of course, if Gou really is to push Mion to her limit, it's natural people would assume it's Shion, just because that's what Shion does in Watanagashi-hen (and Meakashi-hen). This is because of her unwavering, deep trust in those she cares about - she talks about her feelings as opposed to bottling them up, which is good at preventing paranoia, and she tries to see people as innocent until proven guilty. It's not that Mion is "too nice" but a core part of her character is that she never falls to the Syndrome in any world. So, as of now, I don't think Shion committed the murders this time around and I'll be surprised if it really was her when we get the answers (or maybe they give more clues about this arc in Tataridamashi, so I can change my opinion on it).
Also note how composed she acts all throught this arc, not having any emotional breakdown or hints about it onscreen, even going so far as to say sorry to Keiichi the night of the Watanagashi when he just snaps and blames her (I really think it was Shion in the telephone), and she even seems to count with the Sonozakis to ask them about Takano & Tomitake whereabouts that same night.
Not counting the apparent jealously she surely must feel towards Mion because of Keiichi in Watadamashi, it can be just that. You see in Tatarigoroshi, when Keiichi still brings up that Satoshi transferred, Shion kind of snaps for a moment but then she just calms down, and that's because she talked about it with Irie and he supported her because he really knew how important Satoshi was to her, and she didn't go on a murder spree thanks to that in that arc. And Ryu even went and said that it happened not only because they were things related to Satoshi, but because people weren't being sensitive with Shion when talking about it that made her snap like that. What triggers Shion? Satoshi for one, because she got depressed over Satoshi disappearance a year ago and still was by June 1983, the fact that talking about how Satoshi transferred is a way to deny his existence (this is key for Shion), also the complaints she hears from Mion about Keiichi when she wasn't given the doll made her really jealous and reminded her of Satoshi strongly.
With that said, let's talk about Watadamashi here, and note this is only MY current opinion of this arc: I don't think Shion killed anyone, not even Kimiyoshi & Oryou, and that's because I know she can commit murder but only when correctly triggered, and I didn't see that happening on screen anytime. I think that example shows nicely why is that is easy to first blame Shion when a murder has occurred and the twins seem involved somehow. Take for example that moment in Minagoroshi when all of them just found about about Satoko situation with Teppei: How did Mion react? What about Shion? The two of them had the best intentions, just their view of things were quite different in the "how". I think, even if waifu preferences has some influence in this, it's mostly because their personalities: Mion really is a pacifist to the core even in dire situations, Shion is a good girl but can get easily emotional and do things that she wouldn't do with a clear mind. This'll be lengthy, so sorry for that, I just like this topic.
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